The NBA Draft as it Should Be

So we're officially one day away from the madness that will be the 2006 NBA Draft. Never before will so many mock draftists be so wrong. That's why I've decided to go two rounds this time. It's always fun to make predictions and I'm interested to see how well I stack up with everyone else. So without further ado, this is how it's going to shake down.

Actually, before I make the picks, a couple things. First of all, be sure to check out Mock Draft 4 posted on the WBRS Sports Blog. But secondly, and most importantly, I just realized the other day that I'm not going to be able to watch the draft. I was all set to unveil a draft diary tomorrow, but I have tickets to Ben Folds, so I'm not going to be able to check it out. However, in lieu of an actual diary, I've decided to make this an open thread. If you're watching the draft and you have something to say, go on here and say it. If I can't post a diary of thoughts on the draft, I'm hoping all you readers could. If there are enough comments, I'll put them in a separate entry.

Anyway, your mock draft, with trades and everything.

FIRST ROUND

1. Toronto-Andrea Bargnani, F, Italy-In a perfect world, the Raptors would trade this pick, but they don't seem to be too happy with the offers they received. LaMarcus Aldridge could be the pick, and there's been a late push for Rudy Gay. But when it's all said and done, Bargnani will be the pick. It's not a coincidence that Bryan Colangelo hired Bargnani's GM into the Raptors organization and has scouted Bargnani for over a year. With a front line of Bargnani, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Bosh, the Raptors will replace the Washington Wizards as the Eastern Conference's Phoenix Suns.

2. Chicago-Tyrus Thomas, F, LSU-The only other possible choice is Brandon Roy at this point. Aldridge has lost momentum, and there's been no signs of Chicago pursuing Adam Morrison. With Bargnani off the board, John Paxton will turn to personal favorite Thomas. He may not contribute much right away, but I expect him to eventually find his niche as an athletic forward. Chicago probably isn't the best fit for him, but if they do deal Tyson Chandler, Thomas will have a role to play. May end up as the biggest bust based on the fit.

3. Charlotte-Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut-At this point, nobody knows what the Bobcats are thinking, but I expect this to come down to Gay and Adam Morrison. In the end, Gay is the pick. Coach Bernie Bickerstaff values athleticism, and Gay certainly provides plenty of that. I expect Gay to find his way into the starting lineup at shooting guard quickly into the season. At the very least, he will be an excellent sixth man.

4. Portland-Adam Morrison, G/F, Gonzaga-There's only one choice for Portland at this point. If Morrison is still on the board, the Blazers would be foolish to pass him up. Not only is Morrison an immediate contributor, but he will invigorate a donwtrodden fan base as a charismatic Northwest rookie. If the Blazers deal Darius Miles, Morrison should play a ton right away.

TRADE: Houston sends the #8 selection and Luther Head to Atlanta for the #5 selection.

5. Houston (Atlanta)-Brandon Roy, SG, Washington-In the end, the Rockets get the guy they've been searching for. In dire need of a shooting guard, Houston gets the best in the draft in Brandon Roy. With J.J. Redick's injury concerns, moving up in the draft is the only way Houston will get the pure shooting guard they need for their system. Roy should be a very solid player, albeit not a superstar, for a very long time. Think Allan Houston or Shane Battier.

6. Minnesota-Randy Foye, G, Villanova-In my opinion, the most NBA ready of all the prospects in the draft. With Rashad McCants' recent injury and Marcus Banks' uncertain future, the Timberwolves need a lead guard with scoring ability. Foye fits the bill perfectly and should slide right in next to Ricky Davis in the backcourt. My pick for rookie of the year.

TRADE: Boston trades the rights to the #7 selection and Dan Dickau to Portland for Sebastian Telfair and the rights to the #30 selection.

7. Portland (from Boston)-LaMarcus Aldridge, F/C, Texas-The Trailblazers should be stoked that Aldridge lasted this long. Aldridge is still in the mix at the #1 spot and could easily be taken by Portland with the #4 pick. But I expect him to slide because he doesn't fit well anywhere else. Although I don't share in Justin Poulin from Celtics 17's opinion of Aldridge, I do get a "eh" vibe from him. I expect him to be decent, but nothing spectacular, in the association.

8. Atlanta (from Houston)-Shelden Williams, PF, Duke-The Hawks have been promising to select Williams for weeks, and after trading down with the Rockets, they get an additional asset and still get the guy they need. Williams provides immediate toughness up front. He could start at power forward or play behind either Al Harrington or Marvin Williams. Either way, I do believe it is a solid selection for Atlanta, and they can contend in the East next season if they get a good point guard in free agency.

9. Golden State-Rodney Carney, SF, Memphis-Golden State has a reputation for picking the best guy available instead of drafting for need (see 01 and 02 drafts), They are already pretty stacked on the perimeter, but they have not worked out any big guys. I think the pick will come down to Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney, and between the two, I think they'll take Carney. He could start, but most likely, he'll play behind Mike Dunleavy and Jason Richardson next season.

TRADE: Phoenix trades the rights to the #21 and #27 selections to Seattle for the rights to the #10 selection.

10. Phoenix (from Seattle)-Cedric Simmons, PF, NC State-Having missed out on their top target, Rodney Carney, the Suns look instead for Simmons. He is a great fit for their system. He's athletic in the open court and is a solid shot-blocker. In time, his offensive skills should develop. Don't be surprised to see him playing Kurt Thomas' minutes by the end of next season.

11. Orlando-Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas-Brewer is the most overlooked player in this draft. He doesn't do anything spectacularly, but has a really solid all-around game. His athleticism is deceptive, but Brewer uses it as well as any player in the draft. I expect him to start as the off-guard for the Magic early on next season.

12. New Orleans-Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley-It's no secret that the Hornets are thinking big here. They played the majority of the time with P.J. Brown as the starting center. Simmons and Shelden Williams would be better fits, but they're off the board. O'Bryant won't play much next season, but he should be a decent post man in a couple years.

13. Philadelphia-Marcus Williams, PG, Connecticut-Williams is the best pure point guard in this draft. Scouts wonder about his weight problems, but they would be better off worrying about his propensity to turn the ball over. Even so, he has very good vision and basketball IQ. He should be a starter by the end of next year and an all-star in 4 seasons.

14. Utah-Mohammad Saer Sene, C, Africa-Sene is the biggest project in the draft, but he has the potential to be a devastating precense in the middle. The Jazz would probably have to wait on him for a couple years, but he should be worth it in the end.

15. New Orleans-Shawne Williams, SF, Memphis-To me, one of the most underrated players out there. I don't expect Williams to be a star, but he should emerge as a lockdown defender in this league. I remember watching him abuse Adam Morrison in their game against Gonzaga this season. He should play a ton of minutes behind Desmond Mason and should be the starter in his second year.

16. Chicago-Thabo Sefolosha, SG/SF, Brazil-The big wing the Bulls have been searching for. Sefolosha is a prototypical tall wing with strong slashing ability and a solid outside shot. He could certainly resemble Andres Nocioni as early as next season.

17. Indiana-Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky-Should be the modern-day Eric Snow for the Pacers. He struggles with his jumper, but has jet-like quickness, strong rebounding ability, and a great ability to finish around the rim. His playing time depends on whether Indiana decides to move Jamaal Tinsley in the offseason.

18. Washington-Alexander Johnson, PF, Florida State-Has been shooting up the charts after time with trainer David Thorpe, who previously made players out of Udonis Haslem and Kevin Martin. He's lost all the baby fat and has gained an explosivness never seen while starring for the Seminols. He will play behind Antwan Jamison and eventually replace him in a year or two in the starting lineup.

19. Sacramento-Hilton Armstong, C, Connecticut-Sacramento improved their defense significantly last season, but is still in need of a shot-blocking presence. Brad Miller is solid, but Armstrong should be a very good player off the bench for the Kings.

20. New York-Joel Freeland, PF, England-Isaiah Thomas has a knack for finding diamonds in the rough in the draft, and Freeland should be the latest example. He's been shooting up the charts recently and should provide toughness and grit next season. His play would be a great contrast to Channing Frye's finesse game.

21. Seattle (from Phoenix)-J.J. Redick, SG, Duke-Once rumored to go as high as #8, a recent DUI and back injury has set Redick back to here. Seattle is very thin on the perimeter, and Redick should instantly step in and provide backup for Ray Allen. I don't expect J.J. to become much more than a Steve Kerr in this league, but at pick #21, you could certainly do much worse.

22. New Jersey-Olesiky Pecherov, PF, Ukraine-The Nets had prior success with drafting an unknown European and stashing him away for a couple years. Pecherov should eventually form an all-European frontcourt with Nenad Kristic in the future.

23. New Jersey-Jordan Farmar, PG, UCLA-A perfect fit for New Jersey. Jason Kidd is still going strong, but he lacks a legitimate backup. Farmar is tough like Kidd and is surprisingly athletic. He should be a very solid backup point guard in this league for a long time.

24. Memphis-Sergio Rodriguez, PG, Spain-Rodriguez is skinny, but is very quick and a fantastic shooter. He's drawn comparisons to Jason Williams, a former Grizzlie starter. Memphis will need him to play right away, and he probably won't be ready for it.

25. Cleveland-Shannon Brown, SG, Michigan State-In my opinion, the best player nobody is talking about. Brown is explosive, long, athletic, and has improved his jump shot to the point where it is now among the best in this draft. His biggest problem is his size, but they said the same thing about Gilbert Arenas coming out of college. Brown's potential won't equate into immediate production for Cleveland unless Larry Hughes is moved, but I expect him to be one of the top players to come out of this draft when it's all said and done.

26. LA Lakers-James White, SF, Cincinnati-This may seem like it's come out of left field, but the Lakers are in love with this guy. White is athletic and should be a lockdown defender in the league. With Kobe, Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and Devean George clogging up the wing, White will likely bounce around, but like Bruce Bowen and Trenton Hassell, I expect him to eventually find his niche with the right team.

27. Seattle-Josh Boone, PF, Connecticut-He's an athletic big guy that provides insurance in case the Sonics fail to re-sign Chris Wilcox. Even if Wilcox is re-signed, Boone should find time in a frontcourt rotation featuring Johan Petro, Wilcox, Nick Collison, and Robert Swift.

28. Dallas-Maurice Ager, SG, Michigan State-Ager could go all the way at #13 to the 76ers, but if not, I expect him to fall here. Dallas is always looking for athletic wingmen who can shoot, and Ager certainly fits the bill. He will fit in right next to Marquis Daniels and will play an even larger role once Jerry Stackhouse moves on.

TRADE: Miami trades a 2007 first rounder and conditional second rounder to the Knicks for the rights to the #29 selection.

29. Miami (from New York)-Guillermo Diaz, SG, Miami-The Heat get the guy they're in love with. Diaz is undersized, but is explosive and has been training with David Thorpe. With Miami's guards all getting up there in age (save for Dwayne Wade), Diaz may even be finding himself starting in a few years. He won't contribute much next season, but look for him in a few dunk contests in the near future.

30. Boston (from Portland)-Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova-The Celtics trade down 23 spots and still get a pure point they desperately need. I think Lowry will eventually be a great player, but he probably could use another year in school. However, I do expect him to play a ton off the bench next season.

SECOND ROUND

31. Portland-Denham Brown, SG, Connecticut-Underrated wing man who, despite not breaking out in college, should stick as a backup wing in the league.

TRADE: Utah trades the rights to the #46 and #47 selections to Houston for the rights to the #32 selection.

32. Utah-Quincy Douby, SG, Rutgers-Once rumored to be going as high as #16, Douby has seen his stock drop recently, but should play a lot as a backup for the Jazz next season.

33. Atlanta-Dee Brown, PG, Illinois-Probably more of a college star than an NBA prospect, but he should go right there alongside Royel Ivey and Salim Stoudamire as competitors for the point guard spot.

34. LA Clippers-Kevin Pittsnogle, PF, West Virginia-Insurance for the Clips in case Vladimir Radmanovic leaves in free agency.

35. Toronto-Louis Admonson, PF, UNLV-Bruising big man has come out of nowhere recently, but has the body and muscle to stick in the league.

36. Minnesota-Mike Gansey, SG, West Virginia-There's a great column at Sportszilla comparing Gansey favorably to J.J. Redick, and I totally agree with the sentiment. Gansey should stick in the league for a while and could even start in the right situation.

37. Minnesota-P.J. Tucker, SF, Texas-In another age, he would have no shot at sticking, but in this no-tweenters era, he could find a niche somewhere in this league.

38. Golden State-Ryan Hollins, C, UCLA-Fills a need as a developmental big man next to Adonal Foyle and Ike Diogu.

39. Milwaukee-Marcus Vicinius, SF, Brazil-Could go first round, but more likely, he'll be a second-round project.

40. Seattle-Bobby Jones, SG, Washington-The best defender in the draft, Jones stays local and should take over Damien Wilkins' role soon. Good value for the Sonics.

41. Orlando-Marcus de Souza, SF/PF, Brazil-A project, but worth it in the second round.

42. Cleveland-Daniel Gibson, PG, Texas-Not a true point guard, but should be an upgrade over Eric Snow. With Brown and Gibson, Cleveland got two of my biggest steals in the draft (see below).

43. New Orleans-Yotam Halpern, SG, Israel-Halpern is probably a project, but he should be the first native Israeli to play in the NBA. I'm psyched that he's getting drafted.

44. Orlando-Leon "The Show" Powe, PF, California-He's not as good as his college numbers suggest, but he should stick around for a while in the league and is a worthwhile secnd round pick for Orlando.

45. Indiana-Paul Davis, PF/C, Michigan State-Perimter-oriented big man will find a role with the right team.

46. Houston (from Utah)-Craig Smith, PF, Boston College-Great college player, but probably not much of a future in the NBA. Could be a good rebounding demon off the bench on the right team.

47. Houston (from Utah)-Gerry McNamara, PG, Syracuse-Should have a career like Steve Blake, although probably not with Houston.

48. Washington-Darius Washington, PG, Memphis-Another sleeper of mine. His game was never suited to college, and the Wizards are a great fit for his style. I think he'll stick for a while and may even become a very good player for Washington.

49. Denver-Steve Novak, SF, Marquette-Denver has absolutely no shooters, so this pick is a no-brainer, even if Novak has no other skills.

50. Charlotte-David Noel, SF, North Carolina-A phenominal athlete that should play for the Bobcats next season as a backup. Could also see him in some dunk contests down the road.

51. LA Lakers-Will Blalock, PG, Iowa State-A pure point that can play as a backup behind Kobe and Smush Parker.

52. LA Clippers-Taj Gray, PF, Oklahoma-Athletic power forward that can spell Elton Brand next season.

53. Seattle-Paul Millsap, PF, Louisiana Tech-Undersized, but it says something to lead the NCAA in rebounding three consecutive years. Will stick as a "junkyard dog" type like Jerome Williams.

54. New Jersey-Nik Caner-Medley, SF, Maryland-My man NCM will be drafted. New Jersey could use him off the bench next season to play behind Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson.

55. Cleveland-Justin Williams, F/C, Wyoming-Skinny, but a Theo Ratliff clone. The Cavs could use his athleticism up front behind Big Z.

56. Toronto-Jose Juan Barea, PG, Northeastern-Scoring guard with point skills that could stick for the PG-starved Raptors.

57. Minnesota-Allan Ray, SG, Villanova-Further insurance in case Rashad McCants' injury is more serious than expected.

58. Dallas-Marco Killingsworth, PF, Indiana-This guy somehow went 18 in the Killer Crossover draft, which is insane to me. But nonetheless, Dallas could use a bruising presence, even if all he can do is score.

59. San Antonio-Lior Eliyahu, F, Israel-The token random international guy from the Spurs, and I'm hoping it will be the Israeli. That would make it 2 Israelis on draft day.

60. Detroit-Renaldo Balkman, SF, South Carolina-A Ken Pomeroy favorite, Balkman has no position, but then again, neither did Ben Wallace until he came to Detroit.

So there you have it. That's how I think it's going to go down. It's not a top-heavy draft, but it is a very deep class. I expect lots of these guys to be role players in this league for a long time. My sleepers include Shannon Brown, Shawne Williams, Joel Freeland, Mike Gansey, Daniel Gibson, and Darius Washington. Busts include Patrick O'Bryant, Shelden Williams, Rajon Rondo, and Sergio Rodriguez. But like I keep saying, it all depends on the fit. Busts occur because of bad fits, and sleepers occur because of good fits. So it all depends where everyone is drafted.

Once again, use this space as an open thread. Post your thought as the draft happens right here in the comments section. So even if I miss the draft, I'll feel like I was there through your comments.

Enjoy the madness! And while this class won't be as good as these guys below, it should still be an exciting draft.