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A deeper look at the sports world and its tendencies. Nothing is ever as simple as it seems, and we strive for a better understanding of what's actually going on. Main focuses are pro and college basketball.

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

Tuesday's Top 10: NBA Free Agent Moves

I'm starting yet another feature here to get me through the dog days of summer. Every Tuesday throughout the summer, I'm going to give you guys a top 10 list of my choice. Subjects will range from current news to random topics, but each time, we're putting the subjects on a scale of 1 to 10. And while I am taking a page out of the immortal Gregg Doyel, I think I'm going to actually stick with this one throughout the summer.

Today's topic: Early NBA free agent moves. So, without further ado, my top 10 2007 free agent moves thus far.

11. Nuggets re-sign Nene for 6 years and 60 million

Yes, I know, this is supposed to be a top 10 list. But I need to make special circumstances here so I can talk about easily the worst move of the offseason thus far; Denver re-signing Nene. By itself, the move really isn't so terrible. Nene is only 23 and putting him out on the open market would have been extremely foolish. But 6 years for a guy coming off an ACL injury, not to mention injuries that caused him to miss 27 games in 04/05? 6 years and 60 million for a power forward on a roster full of disappointing power forwards? What happens in 2 years when Nene misses even more time and the Nuggets are stuck with his 60 million dollar contract? Unless Denver can really get a lot back for Kenyon Martin, I think this signing makes no sense. I'd rate this move as about a 1/2 out of 10.

10. Lakers sign Vladimir Radmanovic for 5 years and 31 million

I'm torn on this signing. On the one hand, the Lakers really had greater needs to fill with the mid-level exception. They desperately need another guard to play for Smush Parker. Parker is not a bad player, but he is not starter quality. He's the type of guy that can provide an offensive spark off the bench for 15-20 minutes a game. If the Lakers had a true point guard playing next to Kobe Bryant and then brought in Smush off the bench, they would be a much better team. Jordan Farmar may eventually be that guy, but he's too young to fill that role this season. Why not spend Radmanovic's money on Speedy Claxton instead? Claxton can start in Smush's spot and provide a new dimension to the triangle offense.

But on the other hand, Radmanovic is a great fit in this system. In the triangle offense, he's the Lakers answer to Toni Kukoc. He should start alongside Lamar Odom and Kwame Brown and get plenty of open looks. There's no doubt that his ability to stretch the court will open up the middle for Kobe and Odom to operate. Even if he is coming off the bench instead of starting, there's no doubt that he makes the Lakers offense much more dynamic.

Still, I would have rather seen LA sign a more versatile player like Tim Thomas (see later).

9. The Raptors get T.J. Ford from the Milwaukee Bucks for Charlie Villanueva

Say this about Bryan Colangelo: He's not afraid to defy conventional wisdom and trade a promising big man for a point guard. Frankly, I've never understood why Toronto was dying to give up Villanueva this offseason. Other than Chris Paul, Villanueva was the most promising rookie in the league last year. Sure, he was a bit inconsistent, but he's already among the best young forwards in the game. In addition, it's not like he doesn't fit into an up-tempo system. Villanueva reminds me a lot of a young Shawn Marion. He can run up and down the court all day and while he doesn't really have a true position, he has the all-around skills necessary to succeed in a Phoenix-style offense. I understand they drafted Bargnani, but in the new NBA, a trio of Bosh, Villanueva, and Bargnani would be incredibly successful. The Raptors will rue the day they traded Villanueva.

Despite all this, I still think it's not a bad trade for Toronto. The one position that is so undervalued in this league is point guard. Imagine the Phoenix Suns without Steve Nash at the helm. In fact, don't imagine it, just look back to 2003, when the Suns had Stephon Marbury instead of Nash. They still had Marion, Stoudamire, and Joe Johnson, but instead of being a playoff team, they found themselves in the lottery. That's the difference a great point guard makes. T.J. Ford is not a great point guard yet, but he's exactly the type of player the Raptors needed. 5 Point Bucks says that Ford is really overrated, but the problem was the Milwaukee was a really bad fit; a team who never figured out whether they were an up-tempo team or a half-court team. Toronto is a team that's going to play up-tempo, which suits Ford well. Overall, I'd give the edge to Milwaukee in this trade, but Toronto certainly did just fine.

8. Hornets sign Bobby Jackson

Spots 8 and 7 will be occupied by two of the most underrated signings of the offseason. Signing Bobby Jackson to play behind Chris Paul and Kirk Snyder is a fantastic signing for New Orleans. Jackson is not the sixth man he once was for Sacramento, but he still gives New Orleans a much-needed veteran presence off the bench. He can spell Chris Paul when necessary and his scoring ability is a great contrast to Kirk Snyder's defensive prowess at the off guard position. New Orleans has done a great job this offseason of finding guys to fill roles around superstar Chris Paul, and Jackson is one of the best examples thus far of that.

7. Hawks sign Speedy Claxton to a 4 year, 25 million dollar contract

I'm concerned about Billy Knight, because this deal almost makes too much sense. Claxton is a solid point guard who isn't going to score much, but will distribute the ball and play good defense. He's a bit fragile, but with Tyronn Lue behind him, the Hawks should be okay. Claxton is definetly a role player at this point, but he's exactly what the Hawks need. The Hawks have a legitimate scoring guard in Joe Johnson, an impact Scottie Pippen-like player in Josh Smith, a potentially devastating front court scorer in Marvin Williams, a do-everything guard in Josh Childress, and some inside grit with Zaza Pachulia and rookie Shelden Williams. The only thing missing was a distributor at the point. Claxton isn't Sam Cassell, but he's a solid alternative and well worth the mid-level exception.

Atlanta will be a playoff team next year. You heard it here first.

6. Clippers sign Tim Thomas to a 4 year, 24 million dollar contract

I'm a huge fan of this signing, to be completely honest with you guys. I understand that Thomas has killed so many teams with his poor work ethic. I understand that he has been an enigma his entire career. I also realize that his numbers in Phoenix were significantly inflated by their style of play.

But I also believe that the experience in Chicago really humbled him. For the first time, he learned that he was never going to be pampered and treated like a star. Once he got exiled to Phoenix, he realized that if he focused on playing to his strengths; his outside shooting and his versatility, he could be an effective role player for the rest of his career. In Phoenix, Thomas was a legitimate glue guy. He didn't take many shots, but still provided double-digit points, solid interior play, and even some pretty good leadership. I don't think that his late-season performace was a mirage at all. Off the bench, Thomas could be an extremely effective player.

That's why I love this signing for the Clippers. For 6 million less than Radmanovic, the Clippers got a guy that's more versatile and can play more positions while providing the same outside scoring punch. Play him with Elton Brand and Corey Maggette/Quinton Ross, and suddenly, you have a Clipper team that can match up with a team like Phoenix on both ends of the court. All for 6 million less than Radmanovic. To me, that's a no-brainer move.

5. The Bucks get Charlie Villanueva from the Toronto Raptors for T.J. Ford

I've already stated why Villanueva should not have been traded in the first place. In return for a point guard who didn't really fit in with the Bucks system, Milwaukee gets a potential star that they can play with fellow second-year man Andrew Bogut. Talented big men like Villanueva don't just grow on trees, and any time you can get a guy of that caliber for that price, you do it. The Bucks now have the second and third best prospects from the 2005 draft class in their frontcourt with Villanueva and Bogut. Villanueva is also versatile enough to slide over to small forward when Dan Gadzuric or Joe Smith comes in. With Maurice Williams and the underrated Charlie Bell, the Bucks will be fine at the point. Sprinkle in Michael Redd, the league's most underrated star, and the gritty Bobby Simmons, and now you have a team that can really beat you up in the halfcourt. Don't be shocked to see Milwaukee finish higher than Detroit next season in the central.

4. New Orleans signs Peja Stojakovic for 5 years and 64 million

It's expensive, yes. And it's certainly disconcerting to see that Peja's numbers have gone down during his prime. But he's exactly what the doctor ordered for New Orleans. For all of Chris Paul's accomplishments last season, he would have been that much more effective with a legitimate scoring threat on the wing. J.R. Smith never became that guy and eventually fell into Byron Scott's doghouse. In Stojakovic, the Hornets got the best scorer out there on the market and a guy who fills a legitimate need on the perimeter. And while it is concerning to see his numbers go down the past two seasons, playing with a guy like Chris Paul will improve both their numbers.

More importantly, New Orleans is looking like a legitimate playoff team next year. If they do indeed trade for Tyson Chandler, this is what they would look like.

PG: Chris Paul
SG: Kirk Snyder
SF: Peja Stojakovic
PF: David West
C: Tyson Chandler
Bobby Jackson
Hilton Armstrong
Cedric Simmons
Desmond Mason

There's a legitimate 9 deep team with a superstar (Paul), two top scorers (Peja and West), a rebounder and interior defender (Chandler), a glue guy (Snyder), two big bodies off the bench (Armstrong and Simmons), and two veterans who provide scoring punch (Jackson and Mason). That's a good team right there.

3. Chicago signs Ben Wallace to a 4 year, 60 million dollar contract

The shocker of the summer goes to Chicago, who pried Ben Wallace away from Detroit with a 15 million dollar a year contract. Is this the move that makes the Bulls title contenders, as Marc Stein says?

Certainly, it makes the Bulls better. Wallace for 15 million is a much better option than Tyson Chandler for 10 million. Wallace is still the game's best defensive player, and while his numbers were down this season, he's still putting up 12 rebounds and 2 and a half blocks per game. You can make the argument that Big Ben's numbers were down because of Flip Saunders' offensive-based system. Their feud at the end of the season certainly shows that Big Ben wasn't being used as effectively as before. Switch him to a team like Chicago and a coach like Scott Skiles, Wallace's numbers and impact should be much better than last year. In addition, his veteran leadership will do wonders for youngsters like Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and especially Tyrus Thomas.

Still, there are two numbers that prevent this from being #1. 32 and 60 million. 32 refers to Big Ben's age. He's not getting any younger and he's nearing the end of his prime. It's very possible that last year was the first in Big Ben's slow decline. The new rules certainly haven't helped Wallace either, and those are still going to be in place next year. The bigger concern to me, however, is the 60 million. That's a ton of years and money to invest in a guy on the wrong side of 30. In three years, when Chicago is tied to a decomposing 35 year old version of Big Ben Wallace, will the signing be worth it? At 52 million, as originally reported, the Wallace signing in a true coup. But at 60 million? I'm not so sure anymore.

The bottom line is that this isn't a move that propels Chicago to the top on its own. The Bulls still need Ben Gordon to take a huge step forward next year and need either Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, or even Tyrus Thomas to emerge as a consistent second or third scorer. But signing Wallace certainly puts the Bulls ahead of the Pistons at this moment. Whether that holds true at the end of 07 remains to be seen.

2. The Mavericks re-sign Jason Terry to a 6 year, 50 million dollar contract

I give a ton of credit to the Mavericks here. In the wake of the contriversal ends to Steve Nash's and Michael Finley's Dallas careers, signing Terry right away was an essential move. And sign them right away they did. Terry's contract of 6 years and 50 million dollars is reasonable for the scoring guard. Terry's clutch shooting and playmaking ability is one of the main reasons Dallas went from being a nice team to a legitimate title contender. Terry provides grit on the wing that the Mavericks really lacked before last season. Losing Terry would have robbed the Mavericks of their top perimeter scorer and one of their most important players. Not only did they re-sign him, but they did so for a reasonable price. Terry is only 29 and will be a top player for a while.

1. The Clippers re-sign Sam Cassell to a 2 year, 13 million dollar contract

Still, the Terry re-sign was second because of the Clippers re-signing of Sam Cassell. There are so many reasons why signing Cassell to a reasonable extension on the first day of free agency was the most important move this offseason. Donald Sterling needed to send a message that last year's run is not a mirage and is instead a sign of a new era in Clipper basketball. Signing the catalyst to that run to an extension right away sends that message loudly and clearly. Cassell is getting old, but the Clippers could not let him get away. All the progress they made last year would have meant nothing if Cassell left. Now, with a re-signed Cassell, a developing core of Livinsgston, Kaman, and Brand, and complimentary pieces like Mobley, Ross, Maggette, and Thomas, the Clippers are here to stay. But had LA not re-signed Cassell, it would have been devastating to their overall progres.

Blog of the Week:
I know, I know, I'm going baseball for two consecutive weeks, but there are few more entertaining sites out there than Fire Joe Morgan. In case you haven't heard, these 5 sneering authors take aim at baseball analysts everywhere, especially the rotting corpse that is Joe Morgan. No one site epitomizes the traditional vs. statistical analysis debate better than this site. They may come across as snobby or overbearing, but their style produces so many quality quotes. Here's an example.

Sam (St. Louis): The Cards have lost seven straight games. Seven. Seven straight. That stings. It actually stings. Please, give me something to hope for. The Cards will pull out of this.. wont they?

Joe Morgan: I think they'll pull out of it, because they're making me look bad.


KT: That’s why?

I picked them to win their division and play the Mets for the championship. The big problem, the starting pitching hasn't done as well as anticipated. I think it starts with their starters. They need some consistency.

KT: Have you ever noticed that Joe uses the word “consistency” a lot? It substitutes for just about every other abstract noun in the book – talent, health, success, teamwork…it is also handy when you don’t have any specifics at your disposal, like the fact that Mulder recently had an MRI and has serious shoulder problems.

Anyway, be sure to check the site out if you haven't already at firejoemorgan.blogspot.com.


Have a happy 4th everyone!

4 Comments:

Blogger Mini Me said...

I like Joe Morgan, so I won't advocate his firing. Plus he is my great uncle...just kidding. Cassell, Wallace and Terry were all huge contracts. The Clips remain a team on the rise that is almost or maybe is a contender for the title (probably depends on which Tim Thomas shows up in LA). Wallace takes the Bulls one more big step closer. Terry keeps Dallas where they are, the favs with SA to win the West next year. NENE signing was awful, I mean awful. What is Denver smoking? Seriously this might be one of the worst moves I have seen in a long time, and I thought Kiki was a good GM.

Give some credit to the Hornets! I like what they are doing....trying to win. Yes it won't be enough to make them contenders, but I expect them to make the playoffs now. Peja will be very beneficial for the Hornets. I question the Jackson move. He constantly gets hurt...however if he can stay healthy it will end up being a great move. I would have considered getting Mike James instead. I think Radmonvic is decent but nothing special and LA probably shouldn't have given him all that much money. Couldn't Pittsnogle be a poor man's Radmanovic? Sign him and use your extra money to address other needs, because the Lakers have many needs.

10:11 PM

 
Blogger Mini Me said...

Also, the Brown and Smith for Chandler deal. I assume Chicago would only do that to free cap space for after next season? Otherwise, it doesn't make much sense at all.

If Chicago can get Garnett I would do it. However the rumored offer is Chandler, Deng, and Thomas. If I were Minnesota I would think about that, however in the end I would demand Benji G be in there somewhere. I think he is a future star and I think Minnesota could move on in a post-Garnett Era if they could get Chandler and Gordon.

10:15 PM

 
Blogger twins15 said...

Yeah, I really liked the signing of Speedy for the Hawks. I actually thought he would have been a great fit for a team like the Spurs or Pistons - a team that was close but just needed that little extra to give them a spark and keepu up with the younger, quicker guards coming in. Great signing for the Hawks.

And as for Tim Thomas, I'm skeptical. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. In my mind, it seems like the same recurring story, he shows all this potential, but is inconsistent and unmotivated except in his contract year. He's got the talent to contribute regardless, but I don't think his performance next year will be anything close to what Phoenix got out of him.

12:20 AM

 
Blogger Tim Moore said...

HOLLER BACK TO THE #1!!!!!!!!

12:28 AM

 

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