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Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Calling a semi-bluff
Low limit live cash game
Last night I played some $1/$1 NL cash game with a max buy in of $150 and a min. buy in of $40. Everyone bought in for at least $80, and the game was surprisingly decent for a cash game and not a lot of insane raising. Most live cash games will require you to pay 10BB to see a standard flop after one raise. This game was playing decently tight for the first 2 rounds I sat in for, and I decided to take advantage.
Playing the amateur
3 people limp in front of me, and I look down at 9 10 offsuit. I decide to steal this pot and raise to $7. I expect either A) to win $5 in blinds or B) have 1 caller and win after the flop. The blinds fold, but the first limper called, and I was very unfamiliar with his play. He seemed pretty tight, and not very tricky, so I knew I was in good shape. The other two limpers thought for awhile but folded.
Flop: 9 8 3 (1 heart)
My opponent checks to me. This was a very good board for me, especially since I was going to bet this no matter what hit. I knew before the board even fell that I was betting $15 which was an almost full sized pot bet with the pot at $18. To my surprise my opponent called. I thought he could have a set of 3s or maybe pocket 10s, but I still felt that I was good.
Turn: King (heart)
My opponent very quickly bet $30. The king sure seems threatening, but I wondered what my opponent would call a preflop raise with and then check call the flop and bet out on the turn. A flopped set sure seemed to make sense. In fact I was very close to mucking my hand because this is actually a very standard way to play a flopped set. I then studied my opponent very carefully before acting. He refused to look at me and just stared at the table without flinching. He seemed very nervous and looked like he wanted to go home. He wasn't saying a word, I just knew he didn't have a set, and was calling the flop to bluff the turn.
With this read if he called the flop with KQ which is very possible, he will fold on the turn if I go over the top. He will have to put me on at worst AA. It seemed like a standard play. There was $68 in the pot before I even acted and with $90 total it could be a great steal for me with $60 ontop. Sure my opponent will be getting better than 2 to 1 to call, but its a cash game, and no one wants to lose their buy in on good odds. $60 is a lot and KQ seems like an easy fold. I go with my read of the player as weak and not with my read on his actions for a flopped set.
I push all in, he insta calls, and I really am ashamed of my hand and don't want to flip my pathetic 10 9 over. He then SLAMS down Q 10 of hearts for a gutshot straight draw and a flush draw with a gutshot straight flush draw. His 10 is dead, but can also win with a queen. I am still a 2 to 1 favorite, and am really questioning his auto call, and frankly the whole play on his part. The river bricks out and he leaves. The rest of the table told me he is a huge DONKEY that busts out in their cash game every week, or wins a huge pot and then donates it all back.
Poker Quiz
You are playing a $1/$2 NL cash game. The board reads K Q 7 2 all rainbow. You hold J 10. Your opponent bets $20 into a pot of $90. He is a very tight player, and you know he has at least a K, but will not fold if you push. Which of the following is the correct play, and explain your reason (you both have $150 not in this hand)?
A) Call in hopes of hitting the river B) Fold, to save your money C) Semi-bluff and inflate the pot which can also steal the pot
This weekend I went to Turning Stone a casino in upstate New York where you have to be 18 or older to gamble. This was the weekend of my 20th birthday, and one of my friends already won a ticket to their weekly $300+40 tourney, and offered to sell me the ticket for $100. Despite a decently fast structure I decide to buy the ticket.
We start with 300 chips with 30 minute blinds, here are the first few rounds: 25/50 50/100 75/ 150 100/200
As you can see blinds go up very quickly, especially with 30 minute levels. I decided to play very aggressively and splash around in a lot of pots. Here was a very interesting hand I played about 25 minutes in coupled with some analysis.
A player in the Cutoff (position to the right of the button) raises to 125. I look down at 8 5 of diamonds on the button and call, fully knowing the 2 blinds will fold, because they are super tight.
Flop: 8 6 5 (1 diamond)
Opponent leads out with a bet of 600 which was 2 times the pot. I reraise him to 1800 trying to just take the pot and see where I stand. I was at 7100 before this hand started. My opponent had about 500. My opponent called.
Analysis: My opponents hand screams overpair. I strongly think he comes over the top with a set and he probably wants to take a card off before pushing because i could easily have a hand like A 7 and be a coinflip vs him if he pushes with two 10's.
Turn: 7 (diamond)
This card is both a money card for me and possibly a terrible card. If my opponent has two 9s for a straight, I am a dog with 4 cards for a boat, 9 for a flush and then 3 for the same straight giving me a 34% chance to win but a 2 to 1 dog.
Analysis: My read on my opponent was overpair and only 1 overpair would hurt me here. My opponent has no chance to make a full house now. My opponent might be scared of this card, but at the same time I cannot let my opponent get a free card with two 10s.
Action: I go all in and my opponent mucks and shows the Ace of diamonds. My opponent either had the nut flush draw or 2 aces. I made the right bet, because regardless smy opponent did not have me beat and no point in letting him draw.
Tournament summary: 250 people bought in to this tourney, and top 30 make the money. I finished in 24th place. I was a big stack most of the tournament. I got busted with two 7s all in preflop for about 20 big blinds vs. two 4s. If I won that hand I probably would have made the final table which paid a profit of $1000+. I cashed for $600 which is a nice profit for a couple hours worth of work.
Strategy corner:
This will be a new segment in my poker posts. Here I will make a post about strategy and ask for YOUR input. This could be a hand or a tournament structure or something on those lines.
This posts problem: I might be playing in a very juicy game in my dorm and here is the structure. 1/2NL cash game min buy in 60 max buy in 300. I was thinking about bringing $100. The players are very loose (especially post flop) and are super aggressive. They make you not want to gamble and will raise to $11 preflop. They will also call of a ton of money with two 4s to gamble on a coinflip.
My question is: How do you play these guys (bring more money or is 100 good). Play super tight and wait for the cards. Play really passive and limp a lot and try to hit flops. Be hyper aggressive with good hands and let them make mistakes. These are all options. Is it possible to beat a game like this without hitting cards?
I will give you guys 2 hand scenerios about this game. One of my buddies is super tight and bought in for 100. He basically got blinded down most of his stack. Made a preflop raise with AQ got called. Flop was A K Q and the money got all in vs J 10 (guy called 11 preflop with J10).
Another hand my friend raises with A Q to 11 another reraises to 40. My friend is on tilt shoves for 80 and the opponent calls showing QQ.
This will provide some help for you guys....how should I play these guys?
Let me give a brief recap over the history of poker over the past 10 or so years.
1996 or so-A few online poker websites come out such as Pokerroom, that are relatively small sites with pretty low stakes. Very few players are using these sites, which results in not many fish and very low traffic.
2002-Robert Varkonyi Wins the main event. A true amateur besting the main event field.
-The world poker tour begins, adding another medium for everyday people to see poker through the television. Fancy presentation alongside top poker players makes big time Pros famous such as Daniel Negreanu and Gus Hanson.
2003-The big internet boom. The biggest thing to happen to poker since the world series of poker first started. A man named Chris Moneymaker wins the main event besting about 850 people to win the tournament, outlasting Dan Harrington and Sam Farha, the last 2 players he eliminated. Moneymaker turned $40 into 2.5 million. In addition a huge bluff on the 2nd to last hand made Moneymaker famous.
-This year was also the beginning of poker personalities. Guys like Phil Hellmuth are now big personalities much like TO is in football. Hellmuth is known for berating opponents play as well as being super arrogant. Viewers now have favorite players as well as least favorites, and the shows are more entertaining.
2004-The world series of poker expands to roughly 2,400 people which is more people than all previous main events combined. The field is more than 1/2 online qualifiers, which results in a field that is thinner on pros at the top. Dan Harrington somehow finishes in 4th. Matt Dean finishes I believe 5th, and had only been playing poker for a very brief time. The "anyguy" can do it mentality has officially been brought to poker. Greg Raymer wins $5 million first prize. There is also a tournament of champions this year.
-Tuan Le bursts onto the poker scene winning the WPT Foxwoods and WPT championship events. This is over $3.5 million in prize money in about a months time.
2005-The main event doubles in size to 5,600 entrants, one is named Steve Dannenmann. Steve is an accountant from Maryland, who plays a casual game of poker. Him and a buddy Jerry Ditzel split his $10,000 entry fee, and will split whatever winnings Steve received. Steve somehow finishes 2nd, with a high spirited style, filled with laughing, and a very tight aggressive playing style. Truly any person can win at poker.
2006-8,773 people enter this years main event. There are not only 4 day 1's but 2 day 2's, and very, very few players with names towards the top. 3 professionals wind up in the top 20 but only 1 makes it in the top 15. The online amateurs outnumber the pros, and the online players are improving. A man named Jamie Gold truly owned this tournament leading from the 4th day to win the tournament.
2 DAYS AGO:
Bill Frist, a senator attached an online poker ban to a bill on port security. This bill was going to pass 100%, and any senator voting against it will be seen as taking a very soft side on terrorism. Currently a group is being brought together, go to www.pokerplayersalliance.org/ and join for $20 and help make a difference. For further information go to Daniel Negreanu's blog at http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-journal.php?subaction=showfull&id=1160021040&archive=&start_from=&ucat=& and scroll to the bottom.
What this means to poker:
While the WPT and WSOP will still exist many big tournaments will no longer exist. Just last week pokerstars had their "World Series Of Online Poker" which concluded with a $3 million guaranteed $2600 buy in event. JC Tran won the event following a 6 way chop in which he received a prize of $670,000 (or so). Events like this simply cannot happen without poker in the US. Poker WORLDWIDE will continue online and the WSOP and WPT might become much more international.
Tournaments will now become significantly smaller, more to the size of events in 2004. Poker is much more popular than in 2004, but now buying in will be more difficult. You can no longer enter a simple $160 double shoot out, or a $650 tourney and be in the Main Event. You now have to go to Vegas and buy in.
The main differences of online poker and live poker:
Tells: Live poker you get a ton of information, based upon how the player acts. Online you look for betting patterns, and how long a player acts on their hand.
Game Speed: Live poker deals roughly 35 hands and hour at a full table. Online I average around 100 hands an hour and I can play normally up to 6 tables at a time. That means for a 10 hour period I can see roughly 6,000 hands.
Being comfortable: Very few people live near a casino. Everyone has at least 1 computer. One can simply play poker in class or in the library or whenever or wherever you want.
Tilt: In live games it is pretty easy to put some people on tilt. Mike Matusow can just yell and people will be off their game. Matusow cannot insult players through typing in the chat box. This simply will not work.
Rake: In many live games you get a ton of rake. You will enter tourneys that have a 50+20 buy in. Online the rake would be 50+4. While I for one have donated around $10,000 worth of rake, I also receive some nice bonuses with my player points as well as rakeback. In cash games some sites have a max rake of $1 for low limits and $3 for high limits. That means a $10,000 pot would have a rake of $3, which is very low. Some casinos will rake 10% up to 20 Big blinds, so a game of 1/2 NL hold em could have a pot of $40 but with a $4 rake, it has a pot of $36, while online it would be a pot of $39 a $3 difference on a medium pot.
Comments:
Feel free to leave comments. I for one and very depressed over the online poker ban. I feel that if I feel like wasting my money playing cards on my computer then it is my right. If I want to buy 1,000 pairs of shoes and stuff them in a closet it is my right. I understand many kids dropped out of college to play online poker, but if online poker is illegal, then these kids have no job. Many people make livings off online poker, and you cannot take their jobs away. To quote Al Krux, "sometimes those chips mean your families grocery money."
Week 2 was a good week for Prada. He went 10-6 on the week, a solid performance overall. When you factor in Ron's 8-8 week, it was an even better week for Prada, as he sliced 2 games off Ron's lead in the standings, winning the San Francisco-St. Louis game and failing to buy the upset bids of the Cardinals and the Jets.
Onto the picks!
Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3)
Prada's Pick: Carolina. Of the two teams, Tampa Bay is more likely to be 0-3 with their horrendous offense and overrated defense. Carolina could have easily won last week and may even be getting Steve Smith back.
Jumbo's Pick: Carolina
Baltimore at Cleveland (+6.5)
Prada's Pick: Baltimore. Even at Cleveland, the Ravens defense combined with the Browns offense should result in a blowout.
Jumbo's Pick: Baltimore
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-2)
Prada's Pick: Pittsburgh. If they lose, the Steelers would not only be 1-2, but also would potentially be down 2 games in the AFC North to the Bengals and the Ravens. Knowing this, I expect them to play with reckless desperation against Cincinnati and win.
Jumbo's Pick: Pittsburgh
Detroit at Green Bay (+6.5)
Prada's Pick: Detroit. One of these weeks, that passing game has to come along. Against Green Bay's secondary, I see it happening here.
Jumbo's Pick: Green Bay
Tennessee at Miami (-10.5)
Prada's Pick: Miami. That spread is really high, but the Titans are a woeful offensive and defensive team. I expect Miami to wake up and beat them by more than 10.
Jumbo's Pick: Tennessee
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7)
Prada's Pick: Indianapolis. Jacksonville's pass defense hasn't really proven themselves as much as the run defense this season. I expect Indy to throw for enough TDs to make this a 10-14 point win.
Jumbo's Pick: Jacksonville
New York Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)
Prada's Pick: Jets. Buffalo's offense is too inept for that spread.
Jumbo's Pick: Jets
Chicago vs. Minnesota (+3)
Prada's Pick: Chicago. I've been catching a lot of flack for picking against the Bears, but I think Minnesota has been a bit lucky in their two wins this year and are a flawed 2-0 team. Chicago's newfound passing game should be able to have their way again with that banged-up Minnesota secondary.
Jumbo's Pick: Chicago
Washington at Houston (+4)
Prada's Pick: Washington. Clinton Portis is back healthy, which should (key word, should) lead to an easy victory over the porous Texans.
Jumbo's Pick: Washington
Philadelphia at San Francisco (+6)
Prada's Pick: San Francisco. The Niners are frisky offensively and Phily lost their best pass rusher. I say the Eagles win by a field goal.
Jumbo's Pick: Philadelphia
New York Giants at Seattle (-3.5)
Prada's Pick: Seattle. The Giants struggled for most of the game against the Eagles before their miracle comeback, and still especially struggled in the secondary. With newcomer Deion Branch, the Seahawks have more weapons to use to exploit that weakness.
Jumbo's Pick: New York Giants
St. Louis at Arizona (-4.5)
Prada's Pick: Arizona. At home, the Cardinals should pass all over St. Louis and win fairly easily.
Jumbo's Pick: St. Louis
Denver at New England (-6.5)
Prada's Pick: New England. The Broncos have not looked good offensively all year and I don't expect things to turn around on the road at New England.
Jumbo's Pick: New England
Atlanta at New Orleans (+3)
Prada's Pick: New Orleans. Both teams have top-notch running games, but I trust the steady hand of Drew Brees more than Michael Vick. More importantly, this will be the first game back in the Superdome, and you know the Saints will play with tons of passion.
With the NBA Season around the corner, I decided that it would probably be a good time to act on my love for the Wizards and start a Wizards blog. You see, even though I love talking sports, my ultimate dream job is to be the Wizards beat writer-or at least cover the Wizards for a living. I'm going through four years of college to hopefully prepare myself for a career as a sportswriter, and a great way to practice my writing would be to cover the team I'd love to cover for my career in a blog.
So please head on over to the blog. It's called Bullets Fever, after the 1978 championship team, the last Wizards/Bullets team to win the title.
I'll still be writing here. Like Zach over at The Big Pictureand Twins15 over at Complete Sports, I still intend to at least try to keep my general sports blog. Monday/Tuesday Morning Long-Snapper will continue, Ron and I will keep making our picks, and I'll prolly have some extensive college hoops coverage. But I think I'll probably end up throwing more attention at Bullets Fever, ideally.
We apologize for the delay, but it's finally here. The Gatorade Dump's Monday Tuesday Morning Night Long-Snapper, Week 2 edition! In this week's edition, we discuss the importance of Week 2, attempt to separate between the contenders and the pretenders, talk to Grade A asshole Jay Mariotti, and take a quick look at Week 3's huge, huge games.
Let's get into it!
Monday Morning Long-Snapper, Week 2 Edition
Other than the playoffs, it's entirely possible that Week 2 is the most important week in the NFL. In the past 3 years, only the 2003 Eagles have started 0-2 and made the playoffs. The Chargers made a run at the postseason after starting 0-2 last year, but fell just short. History is therefore not on the side of Carolina, Tampa Bay, Washington, Detroit, Miami, or Kansas City.
Fear not Skins fans...at least we still have last year.
More incredibly, however, Week 2 gives us a fantastic indication of who's going to be playing in the postseason. While the preseason may be useless, and Week 1 a bit premature, Week 2 is the first (and possibly only) week that gives us a true idea of postseason contenders. You can look no further than the Washington-Dallas game from last year. If Santana Moss doesn't make those two catches, the Skins are 9-7 and Dallas is 10-6. The Cowboys would have made the playoffs; the Skins would not. Of the 12 postseason teams last year, 10 won in Week 2. The only teams that lost fell to fellow playoff teams (New England to Carolina and Jacksonville to Indianapolis). Certainly, this knowledge is a very good omen for teams like the Giants, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Diego, Denver, Dallas, and Minnesota, among others.
That being said, there are still 14 games and 15 weeks of football to be played. A lot can still happen between now and the start of the postseason.
Press Report Each week, Pradamaster and Jumbomaster sit down with a talking head as they ask us questions. This week, we sat down with Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun Times and ESPN's Around the Horn. Ron and I both are now deaf for listening to Jay yell.
Hello idiots and sports-wannabes, this is Jay Marrioti. I may be universally hated, but if there's one thing I know, it's sports, and all the Ozzie Guillens and Woody Paiges can take that and stick it right where it came from.
Anyway, since I never go into the locker room, I don't really know how to ask an actual question. That's okay, because you both know what I say stands.
1. I'm also too lazy to do my research with the Chicago Bears, but I'll just leave you boys with this comment on your sad excuse of a weblog.
"I think your constant underestimation of the Bears shows a serious misunderstanding of the game and a stubborness that no serious sports fan should have. Frankly it makes me wonder why you guys are making football predictions at all. Not only is the Bears defense completely dominant, but their offense showed they can take over a Lions defense you guys raved about. Give them some credit and stop being so stubborn with your initial criticisms that have been proven unfounded." -Anonymous
Jumbomaster: While the Bears defense surely has looked impressive, their competition has not. Green Bay and Detroit are two of the weakest teams in the NFL. If Chicago shut down the Indianapolis offense then it would be a different story. I will say that Chicago has a top defense, maybe not the best in the league but certainly up there, and barring no injuries they should be back in the playoffs due to an improved Rex Grossman. Pradamaster: Typical Jay...too lazy to do his own work. Seriously though, I think I may need to hightail my way off the Detroit Lions NFC North Championship bandwagon ASAP. The theme of this edition of the long-snapper is to place a lot of importance in Week 2 games. Chicago has shown that they have a legitimate offense that--while not dominant against teams not named the Packers or Lions--can at least give them enough production to win if their defense lets them down. Next week will be an interesting test against Minnesota, but this is now three strong Rex Grossman games in a row, if you count the playoff game against the Panthers. Maybe the Bears are a legitimate threat.
2. Let's talk about the major eagles choke job, why don't we. 24-7 turns into 30-24. Clearly, the eagles miss TO and were stupid to even think about giving him up. I mean, they're a goddam mess right now!
Jumbomaster: The Eagles were victim to bad luck this past week, and being unable to run out the clock. Brian Westbrooks fumble, and Burress's fumble into the endzone were 2 very unlucky plays. Philadelphia does not miss TO because Stallworth is playing very well, as is LJ Smith, and Reggie Brown as well. Westbrook has a swollen knee, but has also played well. The Eagles biggest hole is actually on defense, with Lito Sheppard out as well as Jevon Kearse done for the season. If Philadelphia cannot stop the run they will not make the playoffs, because they are not a running offense, and as a result they will lose the time of possession every game. Look for Jim Johnson to show his best coaching as this team wins the division without Kearse.
Pradamaster: I hate to bring this game up again (who am I kidding), but this game reminds me so much of the Dallas-Skins game last year. As we mentioned already, one spell, one game, can make all the difference in this league. Week 2 is the most critical week of the season, and the Giants got a huge boost with this win, especially considering next week's game against Seattle. T.O. is not the problem Marrioti. He's stinking it up in Dallas. The problem is the defense, and with Jevon Kearse out for the year, that's a major loss for Phily. Their pass defense is remarkably thin now. They will need to blitz too many guys to get a good pass rush, exposing their secondary.
3. Dallas loses in Week 1, Phily chokes to the Giants, the Skins score 0 offensive touchdowns in Week 2. What happened to the great nfc east that we were supposed to see? Clearly the division is the worst in football.
Jumbomaster: For those who do not know, I predicted the Redskins to have a very bad season, so this is no surprise to me. While the Redskins have been very bad, the other 3 teams have looked very good. While they other 3 teams are all 1-1 they all have good QBs and good RBs and even WRs. These 3 teams are very good, and the NFC East is not overrated.
Pradamaster: Rubbing salt in the wound Jay, real classy. The NFC East is exactly what I expected it to be. Four evenly matched teams beating each other up over and over again. None of these teams are going to be 12-4, but they're also not going to be 4-12 (except the Skins maybe). I like the Giants to come out now thanks to that Week 2 win this week, but it will be a tight one the entire season.
4. Kansas City and Denver may be two of the most pathetic teams in football. I mean, how does a Mike Shanahan team not even score a TD and still WIN!? The AFC West, long seen as a top-notch division, sucks. San Diego is the only legitimate team.
Jumbomaster: I think it is too early to tell on the Kansas City Chiefs as well as the Denver Broncos. Both teams have not looked good this season, but they both have decent defenses with a coach that loves to run. It is simply too early to count them out.
Pradamaster: San Diego certainly looks like the clear favorite, but the Broncos should be there until the very end. With all the new faces (Mike Bell, Javon Walker) on offense, they will learn how to gell and figure their games out. The Jay Cutler watch needs to stop until the Broncos go into a serious tailspin.
5. Tell me, what the hell was up with that Monday Night game? How do the defending champions of the National Football League fail to score against the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars? Bill cowher is the most overrated coach in football.
Jumbomaster: I think Big Ben was not ready to play this past week. Combining this with a run that was unable to work led the Pittsburgh offense to 0 plays inside the opponents 40 yard line as well as 0, that's right, 0 rushing first downs. Pittsburgh's offense was simply horrendous, but for as bad as the offense was, the defense was simply stellar. 9 points on Monday night at Jacksonville is quite impressive especially considering Big Ben had 2 Ints. Pittsburgh has shown a lot of weakness these first 2 weeks, and with the toughest division in football things go uphill. Pittsburgh has a ton of weapons on offense between Parker, and Najeh Davenport, as well as a slew of receivers and tight ends. When the QB doesn't play well the offense does not play well, and Big Ben had a bad game. Look for him to bounce back.
Pradamaster: It's hard to believe I'm saying this. Pittsburgh misses Jerome Bettis. Willie Parker can't handle the load on his own, and Najeh Davenport and Duce Staley are no Bettis. When the running game struggles, Big Ben struggles, especially when you consider it was his first game back. All the credit in the world has to go to the Jaguars, but until Pitt can find some offense, they could easily be running third in the three-horse AFC North race.
A quick look back at Week 2 and a look ahead to Week 3.
Prada: Alright Ron, so Week 2 is in the books, and while only 1 team in the last three years has made the playoffs after an 0-2 start, we can still hold out hope for our Skins Jumbo: The Washington Redskins have as good of a chance of making the playoffs as the refs of the Oklahoma-Oregon game have of refereeing the national championship game Prada: Depressing, but it may be true
Prada: Still, Week 2 is the week where we start to figure out trends and we start to realize who the true contenders are Prada: So I ask you this Ron. Pick 5 teams that have a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl, and tell me why they will win Jumbo: 1. Baltimore Ravens-They have an offense, and the scariest defense I have seen since their 200 defense Prada: They have also played Oakland and TampaBay. Worth mentioning Jumbo: 2. Seattle Seahawks-They have given up 13 points this year against Arizona and Detroit, 2 teams who supposedly have decent offenses.Also they have the best wideout tandem in the league and last years MVP. Jumbo: 3. Jacksonville Jaguars-Last night they showed they are for real.Their defensive line is scary with Stroud, and Fred Taylor looks healthy for once.This team will be considered over-rated all year, but I would have to play a team that went 12-4 last year. Prada: Jacksonville definitely showed me something last night, even if I didn't watch Jumbo: 4. Indianapolis Colts-Arguably one of the best teams EVER last season gets very unlucky against Pittsburgh in the playoffs.Joseph Addai is playing very well, alongside Peyton Manning and his slew of weapons.This defense is young and fast and home field advantage will make this team very tough to beat. Prada: Who do you take in the AFC South?Indy or Jacksonville? Jumbo: I think it will be a great race, I will go with the Colts for now, just because Manning is better than Leftwich. Prada: We shall see who gets the upper hand next week Jumbo: 5. Pittsburgh Steelers-You can't pick the top 5 teams and not have the champs in there.The Steelers are back this year and although don't seem very good through weeks 1 and 2, they are just getting over some injuries.Look for Heath Miller to break out alongside Santonio Holmes, as Pittsburgh makes another run. Prada: Your bias always shines through. Pittsburgh can't win if they can't score
Prada: Anyway, don't forget about a couple other 2-0 teams Prada: Atlanta has looked really good so far and finally look like they've figured out how to use Vick Prada: More importantly, they're already 2-0 in the division and two games up on Carolina Jumbo: And don't forget the New Orleans S-A-I-N-T-S SAINTS SAINTS SAINTS Prada: Also, don't forget about my new bandwagon team, Cincinnati Prada: And finally, what about Chicago?They certainly showed me something with that 34 point explosion this week Jumbo: Also, Phillip Rivers and the surprising Chargers. Prada: Of course Jumbo: Honestly, Chicago has faced some weak competition. Prada: It's true. But so have the Chargers, Falcons, and Ravens Prada: In fact, the only 2-0 teams to have played teams that are 1-1 so far are Jacksonville, New England, and Seattle Jumbo: I guess those teams are "weak" because they lost. Prada: Anyway, there still is a jumbled picture, but we have an idea
Prada: And this brings us to next week. If last Saturday was Separation Saturday in college football, this coming Sunday has to be the NFL's Separation Sunday. There are so many key games between contenders Prada: Let's start off with the aforementioned AFC South battle. Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis.Can the Jags get the win? Jumbo: I think so. Jacksonville has a very good defense that can put pressure on Peyton Manning.The issue is that they will not hold the Colts to 0 points.Can Jacksonville put up 17 points against the Colts, I don't know. Prada: Will they?I'm holding you at gunpoint here Jumbo: I don't think so.The receivers don't look good enough, they dropped a bunch of passes and they took no big shots down the field. Prada: Bold prediction here Prada: Jacksonville 14, Indianapolis 12.Colts are held out of the end zone. Bill Simmons rants about how big a choker Peyton Manning is. Pandemonium in Indy
Jumbo: I think a huge game this week is Chicago @ Minnesota. Prada: Yes, ChicagoMinnesota is big. Two teams neither of us liked in the pre-season Jumbo: I am starting to be a big Minnesota fan.Granted they should have lost last week, but they still hung in there. Prada: So you like the Vikes? Jumbo: I do, but also, Rex Grossman was very impressive last week, putting up 4 TDs Prada: He sure was, where did that come from? Prada: I honestly think Minnesota got lucky in both Week 1 and Week 2. I like Chicago to roll, throwing all over the poor Minnesota secondary. 24-13 is the final score.
Prada: Finally, no Tuesday Morning Long Snapper would be complete without a Steelers game to talk about. Cincy comes to town riding high after two blowout wins. Could Pittsburgh really go to 1-2? Jumbo: Its very possible.If Big Ben is healthy, I think Pittsburgh rolls in this one.Pittsburgh secondary is very under-rated and they should perform very well against Cincinnati, because Rudi will not be able to run. Jumbo: I think this game will be very tight, much like Pittsburgh’s game last week.Look for a kicking affair where Pittsburgh wins 24-21 all field goals. Prada: 8 field goals? Jumbo: vs. 7 field goals Prada: Maybe I should pick up Jeff Reed and Shayne Graham in my fantasy leagues Prada: I love Cincy, they're my pick from the AFC. But Pittsburgh is a desperate team this week. If they lose, and Baltimore wins (which will most likely happen), they'll be 1-2 and 2 games back of both Cincinnati and Baltimore. They won't let that happen Prada: Steelers 27, Bengals 24
Prada: And we haven't even discussed some other games, like NY-Seattle (Seahawks kick ass), New England-Denver (Broncos suck) and the surprising Monday night game with unbeatens Atlanta and New Orleans Jumbo: Matt Stovers where its at, my MVP!!! Prada: Whatever you say
Prada: Anyway, that concludes another Tuesday Morning Long-Snapper. We'll see you next week!
The Monday Morning Long-Snapper will come tomorrow because I am a) sick as balls and b) writing a paper. So Ron and I will be back tomorrow with our customary preview of week 2, chat with some talking head, and our fantasy studs and duds.
